Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets

This paper employs the Tail Event NETwork (TENET) to identify financial markets with greater potential risk, and simultaneously investigate the interdependence between them. We find strong time-varying connectedness across 23 emerging markets during the main crisis episodes, including the most recent COVID-19 pandemic, using data from January 1995 to May 2021. The network analysis revealed that emerging European markets are top risk transmitters, whereas emerging Asian markets are top risk receivers. China showed disconnection from the network, reflecting its diversification potential for investors. Our findings offer several policy and regulatory implications. • We investigated the tail-event network dependence of 23 emerging markets;• Tail-Event NETwork (TENET) technique has been employed;• We show that European emerging markets are top risk transmitters, while Asian economies are top risk receivers;• Chinese market is decoupled from the rest of markets analysed. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Emerging Markets Review is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Extreme spillovers between insurance tokens and insurance stocks: Evidence from the quantile connectedness approach

This study examines potential tail spillovers between insurance tokens and conventional stocks using the quantile connectedness approach by Ando et al. (2018).  In particular, this study explores static and dynamic spillovers at lower and upper tails of the return distribution. In line with previous studies, tokens and conventional stocks within the insurance market may show positive but low connectedness levels. Furthermore, our findings confirm a higher sensitivity of the insurance system at both tails of the distribution in comparison with the median (Q = 0.50). As expected, dynamic connectedness measures change over time, intensifying at the extremes of the distribution. This finding is confirmed by the robustness test that consists of analyzing the RTD (Relative Tail Dependence) measure, as we reject the symmetric response, since its values are clearly different from zero in most of the sample period. These results are of interest to portfolio managers, as the findings will allow them to suggest adjustments to investment portfolios according to the evolution of the dynamic spillovers found.

Dynamic spillovers and portfolio risk management between defi and metals: Empirical evidence from the Covid-19

Using a novel TVP-VAR approach, we investigate the connectedness between precious metals, industrial metals, and decentralized finance (DeFi) assets during pre-pandemic and Covid sub-periods. We also calculate optimal portfolio weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness estimates for the portfolios of metals and DeFi assets. Results reveal that the association between DeFi-precious metal and DeFi-industrial metal pairs is weaker compared to the association between traditional precious and industrial metals. The interconnectedness of these markets increased during the Covid-19 period. All DeFi assets, as well as palladium, aluminum, zinc, and Nickel, are net importers of return spillover, while gold, silver, platinum, and copper are net exporters of return spillovers. The return transmission between these markets is rolling, with rapid fluctuations during the Covid-19 period. Finally, the optimal portfolio analysis reveals that adding DeFi assets to the metals-based portfolio is helpful in terms of diversification. These findings are insightful for portfolio managers and policymakers regarding portfolio construction, portfolio adjustment, hedging, and market stability.

Spillovers between positively and negatively affected service sectors from the COVID-19 health crisis: Implications for portfolio management

This study empirically investigates and contributes new evidence to the ongoing topic of potential volatility spillover, efficient portfolio management, and hedging strategies. We investigate the connectedness between the travel and leisure sector (which was negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic) and healthcare, technology, and telecommunications sectors (which were positively impacted by the pandemic). We selected these four service sectors because they have been impacted by the pandemic and are also crucial for the world's economy. We separately perform a connectedness analysis for four regions: Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America. The main findings indicate a rise in return and volatility spillovers during the COVID-19 outbreak in the selected sectors. Healthcare, telecommunications, and technology sectors are major transmitters of volatility shocks to the travel and leisure sector during the crisis. The portfolio analysis shows that investors should include healthcare, telecommunications, and technology sectors in their equity portfolios to reduce investment risk and protect expected returns during the pandemic. Hedge ratios vary over crisis and non-crisis periods, highlighting the option of adjusting hedging strategies during turbulent and stable periods. The study also evaluates efficient portfolio management strategies shaped during the COVID-19 pandemic using the estimated results of the DCC-GARCH approach.

Connectedness of COVID vaccination with economic policy uncertainty, oil, bonds, and sectoral equity markets: evidence from the US.

We examine the connectedness of the COVID vaccination with the economic policy uncertainty, oil, bonds, and sectoral equity markets in the US within time and frequency domain. The wavelet-based findings show the positive impact of COVID vaccination on the oil and sector indices over various frequency scales and periods. The vaccination is evidenced to lead the oil and sectoral equity markets. More specifically, we document strong connectedness of vaccinations with communication services, financials, health care, industrials, information technology (IT) and real estate equity sectors. However, weak interactions exist within the vaccination-IT-services and vaccination-utilities pairs. Moreover, the effect of vaccination on the Treasury bond index is negative, whereas the economic policy uncertainty shows an interchanging lead and lag relation with vaccination. It is further observed that the interrelation between vaccination and the corporate bond index is insignificant. Overall, the impact of vaccination on the sectoral equity markets and economic policy uncertainty is higher than on oil and corporate bond prices. The study offers several important implications for investors, government regulators, and policymakers.

Connectedness between Defi assets and equity markets during COVID-19: A sector analysis.

This paper explores the dynamic connectedness between Defi assets and sector stock markets focused around the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. For that aim, this research applies the TVP-VAR model, and it also computes the optimal weights and hedge ratios for the Defi assets-sector equity portfolios using the DCC-GARCH model. Our main findings reveal that static connectedness is slightly economy- and sector-dependent. Regarding the dynamic connectedness, as expected, the total spillover index changes over time, showing a cruel impact of the global pandemic declaration. Net spillover indices show relevant differences between the Defi assets and certain sectors (net receivers) and sectors such as industrials, materials and information technology (time-varying net transmitters). Finally, the optimal hedge ratios reveal similar levels of coverage in all the periods analyzed, with slight upturns in the cost of such coverage in the crisis period caused by COVID-19.

Static and dynamic linkages between oil, gold and global equity markets in various crisis episodes: Evidence from the Wavelet TVP-VAR

Using the wavelet TVP-VAR approach, this study looks at the static and dynamic connectedness between oil, gold, and global equity markets during several crises episodes, i.e., US subprime crisis of 2007, the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, European debt crisis of 2009–2012, oil crisis of 2014, China stock market crash 2015–16, and the Covid-19. The findings reveal that the connectedness among these markets varies across short vs. long run horizons and across various financial crisis episodes. The connectedness is observed to be high during the crisis's periods. We also perform the portfolio analysis for the pairs of oil, gold, and equity markets and find that gold and/or oil are useful for various equity markets for portfolio diversification and hedging in various market conditions and time horizons. We contend that the results will be valuable to investors, portfolio managers, and policy makers globally.

Return and volatility connectedness between gold and energy markets: Evidence from the pre- and post-COVID vaccination phases

Using a two-step VAR asymmetric BEKK GARCH model, this research explores the asymmetric return and volatility connectedness between gold and several energy markets during three subperiods: pre-COVID, before vaccination, and after vaccination. Gold's returns and volatility spillover are generally found to be time- and energy-dependent. In addition, the optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness of energy commodity and gold pairs are calculated during the three subperiods. The results of optimal weights show that investors should increase their investment in energy commodities more than gold (energy commodities) during the after-vaccination period (the pre-vaccination period). Moreover, the hedging strategy would only be effective within the COVID-19 vaccination period, which could have implications for the strategic asset allocation of policy-makers and international investors. Finally, we examine the potential determinants of conditional correlations between gold and energy markets. VIX, EPU, and new confirmed cases are found to be the main predictors of correlations for most energy commodity-gold pairs during the examined period.

Connectedness between travel & tourism tokens, tourism equity, and other assets

We examine the return and volatility connectedness between travel & tourism tokens and other financial assets, including travel and tourism stocks, energy (WTI oil), cryptocurrency (bitcoin) and bonds, gold, the US dollar, using a generalized vector autoregressive framework. Findings show, in normal economic periods, only weak static spillovers between travel & tourism tokens and other assets. However, dynamic analysis reveals increased intensity of spillovers between travel & tourism tokens and other assets during COVID-19. Results are consistent with travel & tourism tokens offering diversification, including surprisingly to equity of the travel and tourism industry, during downturns that particularly impact tourism.

Hedge and safe-haven properties of FAANA against gold, US Treasury, bitcoin, and US Dollar/CHF during the pandemic period#

The sudden market crash around 20 February 2020 on the dawn of the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of all human communication and revived the interest for risk mitigation during stress periods. Interestingly, FAANA (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet) stocks exhibited positive returns with remarkable resilience throughout the pandemic period, suggesting a change in their investing risk. In this paper, we take a different step from the existing literature and examine the hedging, diversifying, and safe haven properties of FAANA stocks against four alternative assets, namely gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and U.S. Dollar/CHF. Our analysis covers an extended sample period comprising the heightened uncertainty during the recent pandemic period. It involves conditional correlations, optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the pairs of FAANA stock and alternative asset during the full sample period and the COVID-19 pandemic period. The results show that the majority of FAANA stocks serve as weak/strong safe havens against gold, Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and Dollar/CHF in the full sample period. Further, few FAANA stocks serve as strong safe havens against the U.S. Treasury and Dollar/CHF during the pandemic. Our findings suggest that FAANA, once thought as risky high growth tech stocks, have gained maturity and became a safe blanket during the latest turbulent period.

Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets

This paper employs the Tail Event NETwork (TENET) to identify financial markets with greater potential risk, and simultaneously investigate the interdependence between them. We find strong time-varying connectedness across 23 emerging markets during the main crisis episodes, including the most recent COVID-19 pandemic, using data from January 1995 to May 2021. The network analysis revealed that emerging European markets are top risk transmitters, whereas emerging Asian markets are top risk receivers. China showed disconnection from the network, reflecting its diversification potential for investors. Our findings offer several policy and regulatory implications.

Comparing asymmetric price efficiency in regional ESG markets before and during COVID-19.

The ever-emerging environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns have received significant attention of policymakers, governments, regulation bodies, and investors. Considering the markets volatilities due to economic and financial uncertainties that can drive the informational price inefficiencies across the markets, this study compares the asymmetric price efficiency of regional ESG markets by using an asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis before and during COVID-19 crisis. We then examine whether global factors influence the asymmetric efficiency of regional ESG markets. Our findings reveal that COVID-19 outbreak reduced the efficiency of regional ESG markets, except for Europe, which sustained its efficiency even during the pandemic. Moreover, global factors drive the efficiency of regional ESG markets significantly before and during COVID-19. A major implication of our findings stems from the fact that a contagion reduces the efficiency of the markets while stable economic conditions make those markets informationally efficient.

Tail connectedness between lending/borrowing tokens and commercial bank stocks

This paper explores a fresh topic about the tail connectedness between decentralized- lending/borrowing tokens and centralized-commercial bank stocks, regarded as substitutes. Using the methodological approach proposed by Ando et al. (2022), we compare connectedness results at extreme (lower and upper) quantile levels. DeFis and traditional bank stocks may show positive but low spillovers, thus DeFi lending tokens would constitute a new commercial banking asset class. In addition, the tails of the distribution would show excess return (static and dynamic) spillover compared to the mean and median, indicating an increased sensitivity in the extreme market conditions (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), especially in the left tail. The dynamic net spillovers may vary over time for all markets and increase during periods of uncertainty, in line with very recent studies. Also, RTD (Relative Tail Dependence) rejects quasy-symmetry due to its time-variation, ranging between positive and negative values. Therefore, traders and portfolio managers would need to adjust their positions depending on the time-varying net spillovers.

Information transmission between energy commodities and emerging Asian stock markets during crises: an analysis of oil importing countries

Purpose This study examines the information transmission (return and volatility spillovers) among energy commodities (crude oil, natural gas, Brent oil, heating oil, gasoil, gasoline) and Asian stock markets which are net importers of energy (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand). Design/methodology/approach The information transmission is investigated by employing the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz, using daily data for the period January 2000 to May 2021. Findings A Strong connectedness is documented between the two classes of asset, especially during crisis periods. Our findings reveal that most of the energy markets, except gasoil and natural gas, are net transmitters of information, whereas all the stock markets, excluding Indonesia and Korea, are net recipients. Practical implications The findings are helpful for portfolio managers and institutional investors allocating funds to various asset classes in times of crisis. Originality/value All data is original.

Energy cryptocurrencies: Assessing connectedness with other asset classes

We investigate connectedness between energy cryptocurrencies and common asset classes, including oil, using TVP-VAR modeling, evidencing that energy cryptocurrencies, as diversifiers, normally have strong connections with bitcoin and nothing else. However, their connectedness to other assets changes rapidly during shocks such as COVID-19 and the start of the Russian-Ukraine war. Connectedness spiked in April 2020, when WTI oil prices fell to negative pricing. Economic policy uncertainty, Twitter-based uncertainty, and infectious disease-related uncertainty all have significant impact on the system's total connectedness. Energy cryptocurrencies, while normally diversifiers, are highly sensitive to shocks and changes in uncertainty.

Do volatility spillover and hedging among GCC stock markets and global factors vary from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis

In this paper, we use a bivariate VAR-asymmetric-BEKK-GARCH model to examine returns, asymmetric volatility spillovers, and time-varying correlations among GCC stock markets (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain) and five global factors (Islamic stocks, oil, gold, bonds, and real estate) from July 5, 2004, to March 31, 2021. To take into account the effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) and recent COVID-19 pandemic, we divide the sample period into four sub-periods: the full sample without COVID-19, pre-GFC, post-GFC, and the COVID-19 crisis. The empirical results indicate significant return and volatility spillovers between the GCC stock markets and global factors. Moreover, these spillovers between GCC stock markets and global factors increase in both the return and variance during turbulent periods (post-GFC and COVID-19 crisis periods). The time-varying correlations reveal that gold serves as a hedge and safe haven against most of the GCC stock markets in all sample periods, whereas the results vary across markets and sample periods for bonds, oil, Islamic stocks, and real estate assets against the GCC stocks. Our findings provide useful insights for investors and portfolio managers formulating trading strategies, determining asset allocation, and assembling optimal portfolios, since they persistently pursue challenging investment ideas and alternative asset classes, especially at times of financial crisis and global recession.

Static and dynamic connectedness between NFTs, Defi and other assets: Portfolio implication

The paper examines the return and volatility transmission between NFTs, Defi assets, and other assets (oil, gold, Bitcoin, and S&P 500) using the TVP-VAR framework. The results report weak static return and volatility spillovers between NFTs and Defi assets and selected markets, showing that these new digital assets are still relatively decoupled from traditional asset classes. Bitcoin, oil, and half of the NFTs and Defi assets are net transmitters of return and volatility spillovers, whereas rest of the markets are net recipients of spillovers. Our findings show that the dynamic return and volatility connectedness become higher during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and the cryptocurrency bubble of 2021. We also compute the static and dynamic optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the portfolios of NFTs/other asset and Defi asset/other asset and show that investors and portfolio managers should consider adding NFTs and Defi assets in their portfolios of gold, oil, and stock markets to achieve diversification benefits.

Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between Gold, Brent oil and EU subsector markets

This study examines the dynamic asymmetric return spillovers between gold and oil commodity futures and 22 European equity sectors using the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) approach. The results show that gold and oil markets are the net recipients of return transmissions from the system, whereas the majority of equity sectors are the net transmitters of return spillovers in the system. Furthermore, negative spillovers are stronger than positive spillovers, suggesting asymmetry in return spillovers. Gold is the smallest recipient/transmitter of return spillovers from/to the system. The time-varying symmetric and asymmetric return spillover rises during the 2011–12 European debt crisis, 2014–15 oil crisis, 2016 Brexit referendum, and the COVID-19 crisis episodes, providing evidence of contagion. More interestingly, the COVID-19 crisis has had the biggest impact on positive and negative return transmission among the markets under study. The pairwise network connectedness analysis reveals the energy (basic resources) sector as the biggest transmitter of positive and negative return spillovers to the crude oil (gold) market. Finally, portfolio risk and downside-risk reduction analyses suggest an optimal weights-based strategy to minimize the risk for gold-stock and oil-stock-based portfolios during down markets. Overall, gold (oil) is considered to diversify the risk of all (few) European equity sectors during crisis and non-crisis periods.

Spillovers between the Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies and equity markets during the COVID-19: A sectorial analysis

This study examines the return and volatility transmission between the Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies (Onegram and X8X) and global Islamic equity sectors during the pre-COVID and COVID-19 periods. We also estimate the optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for all pairs of markets. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 crisis intensified the spillover effect between the selected Islamic assets. We show that investors could increase their allocations in Onegram gold-backed cryptocurrency to reduce the risk of the equity sector portfolio during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the hedging costs for all pairs have increased during the COVID-19 period in comparison to the pre-pandemic level. Finally, the analysis of hedging effectiveness suggests that investors can reduce the risk of Islamic sectorial equity portfolios by adding the Islamic sharia-based cryptocurrencies during both sample periods.

Herding on Fundamental/Nonfundamental Information During the COVID-19 Outbreak and Cyber-Attacks: Evidence From the Cryptocurrency Market

We provide an empirical analysis of herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets during COVID-19 and periods of cyber-attacks, differentiating between fundamental and nonfundamental herding. The results show that herding behavior is driven by fundamental information during the full sample period and the cyber-attack days. However, herding is not prevalent during the COVID-19 outbreak, either when reacting to fundamental or nonfundamental information. This finding suggests heterogeneity in the behaviors of participants in the cryptocurrency markets during the COVID-19 period.